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Creators/Authors contains: "Herbert, Timothy D"

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  1. Abstract Model‐based projections of hydroclimate in western North America (wNA) remain uncertain and depend on how Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) will evolve in the future. However, whether climate models can accurately capture Pacific SST changes and its relationship with wNA hydroclimate in the future remains elusive. Here, we use a synthesis of proxy records and idealized model simulations to elucidate the spatiotemporal evolution and the forcings that drive wNA hydroclimate and Pacific SST during the Holocene (past ∼11,000 years), when the boundary conditions are different from the present. We find that wNA hydroclimate and Pacific SST co‐evolved during the Holocene, where wNA became wetter while the eastern equatorial Pacific and the north Pacific became warmer toward the present. We attribute changes in wNA hydroclimate to precession and carbon dioxide changes, but we are unable to attribute Pacific SST changes unambiguously to any forcing. Our analysis offers a framework to understand the relationship between wNA hydroclimate and Pacific SST and provides an empirical assessment of how these two regions are related over time. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available July 1, 2026
  2. Abstract Peak Neogene warmth and minimal polar ice volumes occurred during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO, ca. 16.95–13.95 Ma) followed by cooling and ice sheet expansion during the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT, ca. 13.95–12.8 Ma). Previous records of northern high-latitude sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during these global climatic transitions are limited to Atlantic sites, and none resolve orbital-scale variability. Here, we present an orbital-resolution alkenone SST proxy record from the subpolar North Pacific that establishes a local maximum of SSTs during the MCO as much as 16 °C warmer than modern with rapid warming initiating the MCO, cooling synchronous with Antarctic ice sheet expansion during the MMCT, and high variability on orbital time scales. Persistently cooler North Pacific SST anomalies than in the Atlantic at equivalent latitudes throughout the Miocene suggest enhanced Atlantic northward heat transport under a globally warm climate. We conclude that a global forcing mechanism, likely elevated greenhouse gas concentrations, is the most parsimonious explanation for synchronous global high-latitude warmth during the Miocene. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 8, 2025
  3. Alkenones are long-chain ketones produced by phytoplankton of the order Isochrysidales. They are widely used in reconstructing past sea surface temperatures, benefiting from their ubiquitous occurrence in the Cenozoic ocean. Carbon isotope fractionation (εp) between alkenones and dissolved inorganic carbon may also be used as a proxy for past atmospheric pCO2 and has provided continuous pCO2 estimates back to ca. 45 Ma. Here, an extended occurrence of alkenones from ca. 130 Ma is reported. We characterize the molecular structure and distribution of these Mesozoic alkenones and evaluate their potential phylogenetic relationship with Cenozoic alkenones. Using δ13C values of the C37 methyl alkenone (C37:2Me), the first alkenone-based pCO2 estimates for the Mesozoic are derived. These estimates suggest elevated pCO2 with a range of 548−4090 ppm (908 ppm median) during the super-greenhouse climate of the Early Cretaceous, in agreement with phytane-based pCO2 reconstructions. Finally, insights into the identity of the Cretaceous coccolithophores that possibly synthesized alkenones are also offered. 
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  4. Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2025
  5. Changes in plate tectonics drove degassing of carbon dioxide and global temperatures over the past 20 million years. 
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  6. Abstract The rate of ocean‐crust production exerts control over sea level, mantle heat loss, and climate. Different strategies to account for incomplete seafloor preservation have led to differing conclusions about how much production rates have changed since the Cretaceous, if at all. We construct a new global synthesis of crust production along 18 mid‐ocean ridges for the past 19 Myr at high temporal resolution. We find that the global production rate during 6–5 Ma was only 69%–75% of the 16–15 Ma interval. The reduction in crust production is mostly due to slower seafloor spreading along almost all ridge systems. While the total ridge length has varied little since 19 Ma, some fast‐spreading ridges have grown shorter and slow‐spreading ridges grown longer, amplifying the spreading‐rate changes. Our production curves represent a new data set for investigating the forces driving plate motions and the role of tectonic degassing on climate. 
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  7. Abstract Alkenones are biomarkers produced solely by algae in the order Isochrysidales that have been used to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) since the 1980s. However, alkenone-based SST reconstructions in the northern high latitude oceans show significant bias towards warmer temperatures in core-tops, diverge from other SST proxies in down core records, and are often accompanied by anomalously high relative abundance of the C37tetra-unsaturated methyl alkenone (%C37:4). Elevated %C37:4is widely interpreted as an indicator of low sea surface salinity from polar water masses, but its biological source has thus far remained elusive. Here we identify a lineage of Isochrysidales that is responsible for elevated C37:4methyl alkenone in the northern high latitude oceans through next-generation sequencing and lab-culture experiments. This Isochrysidales lineage co-occurs widely with sea ice in marine environments and is distinct from other known marine alkenone-producers, namelyEmiliania huxleyiandGephyrocapsa oceanica. More importantly, the %C37:4in seawater filtered particulate organic matter and surface sediments is significantly correlated with annual mean sea ice concentrations. In sediment cores from the Svalbard region, the %C37:4concentration aligns with the Greenland temperature record and other qualitative regional sea ice records spanning the past 14 kyrs, reflecting sea ice concentrations quantitatively. Our findings imply that %C37:4is a powerful proxy for reconstructing sea ice conditions in the high latitude oceans on thousand- and, potentially, on million-year timescales. 
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